Scarlett Moffatt Explains What Percentage Of Rain Means On Weather App

Bill Mount

Scarlett Moffatt has taken to TikTok to tell us all that when your weather app gives you a percentage of rain, it doesn’t mean that’s the chance. Watch her blow people’s minds below: The 30-year-old posted the 24-second clip with the caption: “They should teach you how to read weather […]

Scarlett Moffatt has taken to TikTok to tell us all that when your weather app gives you a percentage of rain, it doesn’t mean that’s the chance. Watch her blow people’s minds below:

The 30-year-old posted the 24-second clip with the caption: “They should teach you how to read weather apps in school and that,” and some of her fans were left baffled.

Speaking to the camera, the television personality told her 560,000 followers: “So all this time that I’ve like been caught in the rain and people are like, ‘Why haven’t you brought a jacket?’ and stuff like that…

“It’s because I’ve just found out that on the weather app, when it says ’30 percent rain’, I thought that meant ’30 percent chance of rain’.

“It doesn’t mean that, it means that 30 percent of your area will be covered in rain.”

Scarlett insinuated she’s been left mind blown. Credit: TikTok/scarlettmoffatt

In response to the video, one person wrote: “I have been scammed my whole life,” while another said: “Oh!!!!! My mind is blown. Is this really true? Always thought it meant chance of.”

A third commented: “I was today years old when I learnt this.”

Trying to explain it, another follower wrote: “She thought it meant 30% chance rain so 70% chance no rain but really it means 100% chance that it will rain in 30% of your area. Hope that makes sense.”

Others simply weren’t having any of it, with one writing: “It’s not true. In the app it says ‘Chance of Rain’ then underneath 30%.”

Confused? You’re not the only one.

A Reddit thread asks the question: “Does the percentage in weather apps mean the probability of it happening?”

Another user has responded, saying: “Yes, but not fully. The amount of the area that is predicted to receive rain also factors into the equation. The forecaster can be 100% confident it will rain, but predict it will only rain in 30% of the area making it a 30% chance of rain.

“Or they can be 50% confidence that it will rain in 80% area making it a 40% chance of rain. They use a percent confidence x area affected formula to calculate the data.”

As much as we’d like to take Scarlett’s word for it – or Reddit’s, come to that – LADbible checked in with the Met Office for clarity. The website breaks it down succinctly, saying: “In weather forecasting, suppose the Met Office says that the probability of rain tomorrow in your region is 80%.

“They aren’t saying that it will rain in 80% of the land area of your region, and not rain in the other 20%. Nor are they saying it will rain for 80% of the time.

“What they are saying is there is an 80% chance of rain occurring at any one place in the region, such as in your garden.”

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